A US-China war is just around the corner. True or false?
Jan 13, 2025 https://johnmenadue.com/a-u-s-china-war-is-just-around-the-corner-true-or-false/Before asking whether we are on the precipice of a calamitous war between the United States and China, we need to query who wants such a conflict and who will benefit from it.
Certainly, arms manufacturers will gain. So will the media and global strategy pundits. All three will improve their businesses and their incomes. The anti-Donald Trump Democrats and deep state supporters wish for a war since it will override Trump’s boast of never starting a war when he was president and his current talk about how he will keep the U.S. out of war with his ability to negotiate.
Next, we need ask what are the arguments that such a war is inevitable, given the reasons and causes for it? And what are the reasons these arguments are false or weak?
The top reason for thinking there will be a US-China war is Taiwan will be the trigger. China regards the “Taiwan issue” as a matter of its territorial integrity. Chinese officials see Taiwan as a part of China that must be recovered to make China whole. Further, it is “lost territory” to Western imperialism. China’s period of humiliation of more than a century beginning with the Opium War cannot end until China’s hope is fulfilled.
The United States has a vested interest in Taiwan not being recovered. There are two main ones. First, China owning Taiwan would allow it to utilise bases on Taiwan’s east coast and house its submarines there (a vital part of China’s military expansion) to enter deep water (nearby to the deepest on earth) and sail toward the US West Coast undetected. This relates to the contest for control of the Pacific Ocean. The US has bolstered relations with Pacific Island countries to ensure its continued dominance. In 2023, the US signed a defence agreement with Papua New Guinea that included $3.5 billion in aid. Washington is now in the process of providing $10 billion to bolster American bases in Guam. Second, is the fact American credibility with its Asian allies would be seriously undermined if Taiwan became part of China after Taiwan’s enjoying America’s protection for so long. It would signal China had won a major battle in its goal to defeat and replace the United States as the world’s Asian power. Asia is the centre of the global competition for supremacy in the global geopolitical race for leadership.）
Weighing against a war happening are some powerful facts. One is that the situation cum standoff cited above has prevailed for some years without a war. Further, China believes, logically, that time is on its side. Its economy (24 times Taiwan’s) and miliary prowess eclipse Taiwan’s and are growing faster. Chinese leaders say that they will accomplish Taiwan’s reunification by economic means, which is believable. Economic growth projections favour China and forecast Taiwan’s greater dependence on China in the future for trade and commerce. Likewise, with China’s pulling ahead of the rest of the world in science and technology, which is important to Taiwan. Finally, according to US strategists, China is not readying an invasion force aimed at liberating Taiwan. Anyway, President Xi speaks of Taiwan becoming part of China by 2049. That is a long time in the future. Plenty of time to work out a peaceful solution.
The second reason for believing a US-China war is in the offing is the nature and structure of the global system: bipolarity. It is a system based on two contending superpowers and is zero-sum in character. One power’s gain is the other’s loss. Further, conflict and war are even more certain if the status quo power, the United States, is in decline, while the other, China, is rising fast – which is the current situation.
Plus, the second ranking powers are far behind the US and China and are further losing ground. Russia is not among the 10 top nations of the world in gross domestic product – arguably what defines a future superpower. It is no longer a powerhouse in most other measures of national power, the European Union’s GDP growth is bested by China by more than threefold. Japan trails China by more than five-fold. All three suffer negative demographic change, most notably population decline. The wannabe powers, India, Indonesia, Brazil, are too far behind the US and China to matter.
If China’s miraculous rise of recent decades continues while America declines, bipolarity will turn into unipolarity, vis. a Chinese global empire. This will not likely give us peace and stability as China is not ready or prepared to lead the world – not yet at least. Anyway, there would likely be a backlash to a China-controlled world as there was to America’s temporary “unipolar moment” after the Cold War ended. Another matter is the US China bipolar system is asymmetric. The US leads in military power (with a larger budget, several hundred overseas basis and many allies which China lacks), soft power including culture and language, and dominance of the global media. China leads in money power (foreign exchange, global investing and economic assistance) and science and technology. This is not a framework for systemic competition.
Alas, a crash of bipolarity might give us a no-polar system, which would be tantamount to chaos. Likewise, a universal system, the UN not being capable of running the world as the League of Nations was not, is not a feasible alternative. Many of its agencies are not functioning well and the UN overall has not risen to resolve most serious global problems. Finally, most world leaders, not to mention pundits and the Western media, favour multipolarity and multilateralism.
In counterpoint, the history of a two-polar system is not long and there is little evidence it is by its very nature unstable. In fact, the post-World War bipolar world was a period of no major wars (nuclear weapons were not used) and was a time of prosperity and of progress in science and technology. The dread of mutual assured destruction on the one hand, and US-Soviet co-operation and collaboration on the other, prevented a global war. Currently the impetus to prevent WWIII is even greater owing to the addition of chemical and germ weapons that are just as deadly and can be easily hidden and transported. Lastly, a bipolar system need not be symmetric. It was not during the Cold War; balance worked anyway.
What could go wrong? Or, better put, what needs to happen to make a US-China détente and co-operation work?
Donald Trump needs to revive America’s economy to around 5% annual growth from the 2% during the last years of Biden/Harris. He has to cut wasteful spending and reduce America’s huge and debilitating debt to be able to better fund research and development. The US military must be rebuilt into a fighting force rather than an institution for social change. Trump needs to end the wars he said he would and cope with Democrat Party efforts to sabotage his agenda. Finally, it is essential he restrain Taiwan’s President Lai from provoking China to bolster his presidency.
President Xi must revive China’s economy through stimulus and by expanding domestic consumption. Xi has to nurture good relations with Trump. He should work to end the Western media’s bias against China and renew the era of good feelings that prevailed after Nixon’s visit to China. He must find more allies. He must maintain solid support for his leadership.
The US and China together have to resolve the bilateral trade imbalance. They need to negotiate, negotiate, negotiate and prevail over those who want war. They need to increase their economic and other ties. Trump and Xi respect each other; this is fortunate.
Hence, peace should prevail over those who want war. At least some optimism seems justified.